🇮🇷 Successful revolutions require 5 things, and Iran is missing one. The economy is wrecked. The elites are divided. The opposition is broad. An...
🇮🇷 Successful revolutions require 5 things, and Iran is missing one.
The economy is wrecked. The elites are divided. The opposition is broad. And they are all rallying behind a shared cause.
The only thing missing: Defections within the security forces.
The Iranian regime did something very strategic when it took power in 1979; it divided security into 2 major institutions, the regular army (which existed prior to the revolution), and the newly formed better equipped and more ideological IRGC, which is loyal to the Supreme Leader.
This rivalry between the 2 institutions makes it a lot harder for one to take charge, unlike what we see in most other regime changes where the military assumes leadership during power vacuums.
If Trump intervenes militarily (which he probably will) his focus will be to likely weaken the IRGC, the more ideological body, hoping the more nationalistic and less ideological army breaks with the regime.
This is a very risky strategy as it may lead to civil war. The preferred outcome is to have elements within both institutions turn on the regime, avoiding a bloodbath between both groups.
My prediction: We will see a similar model in Iran as we saw in Venezuela, which is the removal/death of the ideological Supreme Leader, but the continuation of the current regime, however under a more open and peaceful foreign policy.
I don’t think such a strategy will succeed, as Iran is not Venezuela: The power structure is more convoluted and less clear, the country is rooted in Shiite Islamic ideology, and is bordered by unstable nations (Iraq, Afghanistan) as well as multiple separatist groups (Kurds, the Sunni Baloch, the Khuzestani Arabs and the Azerbaijanis).
Iran is a very large and complex country, and any regime change will likely not go smoothly.
